••• Education •••

No “October surprise”: state assessment scores tank again

In this recently published article, I predicted there would be an “October surprise” regarding 2024 state assessment results. I based that prediction on Education Commission Randy Watson’s presentation to the state board during the September meeting. At that time Watson was very upbeat in terms of what the board was doing regarding literacy policy. Since Watson said he was going to present the state assessments in October – tests that were conducted last spring – it seemed logical that the literacy (ELA) scores would show meaningful improvement in 2024. And following his celebratory suggestion from last year that the board dance around the capitol due to better scores in 2023, Watson would be calling for a parade down Jackson Street in Topeka.

I was wrong.

The only surprise is that there was no surprise. State assessment scores were essentially flat, compared to 2023 and, of course, still in the tank. Those students scoring in Level 1, the lowest category, ‘improved’ from 32.9% to 32.8%. Math scores – a subject Watson and the board have essentially ignored (“Nobody told me there would be math!”) – in Level 1 actually increased, from 33.1% to 33.2%. Also, students who scored in the proficient categories – Levels 3 and 4 – were also virtually unchanged.

(An excellent analysis of the state assessment results by KPI CEO Dave Trabert can be accessed here.

Watson’s initial response to the board at the October meeting regarding these scores? “That’s good news, you oughta celebrate.” Yes, in the world of the public education establishment, these scores are cause for celebration.

Watson’s reaction to these limp scores was essentially the same as the members of the board: “Ho hum…Next.” He spent barely five minutes on the continuing crisis that approximately one-third of Kansas students are below grade level in reading and math. He paid lip service by stating: “A third of the kids in Level 1 is way too much. Our hair out to be on fire.”

Hmmm…I’m trying to picture a celebration that includes self-immolation. I guess that’s what you do when you want things both ways, as Watson so cleverly presented the results. He continued by stating “while the numbers are getting better, that number [% scoring in Level 1] needs to drop into the teens…for me to be doing cartwheels.”

Well, commissioner, it looks like you’ve got plenty of time to hone your gymnastics skills if this “trend” continues. The graph shows that at the rate of improvement from 2022 continues, it’s gonna be awhile until you don your sweats and find a grassy patch. Using your definition of trend, ten years from now that number will be 27% of students scoring in Level 1, not quite halfway to a cartwheel. That’s more like a few jumping jacks territory.

Of course, if you changed the starting date of your analysis from 2022 to 2015 – the initial year of the current state assessment, as Trabert reported above – you could leave your workout gear in the drawer because the comprehensive “trend” is toward higher percentages in Level 1, not lower.

Commissioner Watson’s solution? Train teachers. “Tell me why a teacher should have to take the training [science of reading] in literacy? Because a third of our students can’t read well enough to go execute every post-secondary option they want.” The training Watson refers to is included in some literacy goals the board has set.

What about math? Indeed, Commissioner Watson and the board appear to have such little interest in math to the point that they don’t even discuss it. What is the board’s solution to the dismal math scores? As Watson put it: “Again, we’re working on that. You’ve [the board] put money into that.” I have no idea what that is supposed to mean. I guess it’s his version of ‘let’s move on, there’s nothing to see here.’

Here’s how Watson and the board look at state assessment results: (1) test scores are getting better to the point of celebration, even though they are not (2) too many kids are still in Level 1, (3) the board is doing everything it can to set policy to improve the scores (4) it’s the individual school’s and teachers’ fault scores are not better.

At the end of his presentation Watson said to the board “I’d be happy to answer a few questions before lunch.” Nada. Nothing. Crickets. Not a single inquiry. That’s how concerned the board is regarding state assessment scores.

And we wonder why student achievement is so unacceptably low.

Can’t blame COVID on this

Of course, what little interest there was in the state assessment scores was showered in COVID excuses, the new go-to excuse that has replaced the not-enough-money whine the education establishment has used for decades.

But COVID can’t be blamed on this: 2024 marks the first year in which students testing in the initial grade – 3rd – were not old enough to be in school when schools were shut down by Governor Kelly. You might think that means the third graders in the 2024 cohort would score much better than the third graders a year ago, those who missed kindergarten because of the governor. You’d be wrong.

The table reveals that the 3rd grade cohort this year performed virtually identical to the 2023 scores. So much for the COVID excuse. And it goes without saying that test scores overall were falling prior to forced school closures (see above Trabert article).

This is getting old. Each year Commissioner Watson gets in front of the board and touts a teardrop of success in the ocean of failure. Students continue to drown academically in a sea of mediocrity. Yawn.

And nothing changes.

The Kansas commissioner of education told the board their hair should be on fire in response to failing test scores. I didn’t see anybody reaching for a lighter.

Let’s face it. These scores aren’t going to get better. Not next year, nor the year after, nor…History tells us that. The song remains the same.

And nothing changes.

Commissioner Watson likes to pepper his presentations with sports analogies. Here’s one: if Watson were a football coach, basketball coach, or baseball manager he would have been fired years ago. But he persists, fat and happy like the rest of the education establishment, while tens of thousands of Kansas students are underserved by a calcified system.

And nothing changes.

Why? Because the Kansas State Board of Education is feckless. During the October meeting the only comments/questions board members had were to try to make excuses for the continuing bad scores: new immigrants, poverty, chronic absenteeism, and “vouchers” for examples. (More on “vouchers” in the next blog.)

But hope springs eternal. Several members of the board did not seek reelection, and the board will have a different look come 2025.

Let’s hope at least one brings a torch.