The 2024 state assessment results will be released at the monthly State Board of Education meeting on October 8–tomorrow–according to Education Commissioner Randy Watson. By the content and tone of Watson’s September presentation to the board, expect an “October surprise” when he shares the results with the board.
I believe Watson will disclose “improvements” over last year, at least in terms of the percentage of English language arts (ELA) students scoring in the lowest assessment level – Level 1.
Similar to an “October surprise” in presidential election politics, timing is the key. Are you old enough to remember Nixon’s “peace is at hand” statement regarding Vietnam in 1972? How about the New York Times running an article in October of 2000 claiming George W. Bush had been arrested for drunk driving? Or Hunter Biden’s laptop during the last presidential election? The list of “October surprises” is virtually endless. I can’t wait to see the plethora of “surprises” between Trump and Harris this October.
What makes the 2024 Kansas state assessment results analogous? Let’s be clear here, Watson already knows the results, he has for months. The commissioner has made it a habit to release state assessment results in a mixed-bag with other outcome results for years, e.g., graduation rates, NAEP scores, free/reduced lunch. He does this during his annual report on student achievement to the state board in the fall. During the presentation, Watson decides how much time to give to state assessment results depending on how well he perceives the results to be.
At the extreme, he has spent almost no time on the state assessment results. Surprise, surprise: that was a year (2017) the results were worse than usual. Last year, when the results showed microscopic improvements, he wanted to dance the state board around the capitol (I know, I know, I can’t unsee that, either).
Here’s what transpired at the September meeting to make me believe he is sandbagging the 2024 results, setting up his version of an “October surprise.” Watson spoke at relative length regarding his concern over the frequency of students scoring in Level 1, specifically in ELA. Now consider Watson’s go-to dismissive line regarding state assessments: “it’s one test on one day”. But he was also quick to remind the board, through both words and graphs, that there was improvement from 2022 to 2023. What he didn’t dwell on was that the “improvement” went from 33.94% in Level 1 in 2022 to 32.89% in Level 1 in 2023. That’s like saying if the temperature drops from 100 to 99 “it’s getting cooler.”
Watson doubled down, claiming he couldn’t understand why this isn’t news by stating “I have yet to really see anyone shouting that a year ago, Level 1 came down and that would give more kids with opportunities and thank you teachers.”
The commissioner also gave more lip service to achievement when he said “I don’t know how many times I have to say it: academics matter, they really matter.” He reinforced his commitment to academic improvement by showing a graph comparing 2022 to 2023, declaring “Level 1 went down.”
What exactly does it mean, not in percentage terms, but in terms of number of students with a change from 33.94% to 32.89%? How many students are we talking about here?
The table below shows the results Commissioner Watson was talking about in terms of number of students not percentages of students. First though, a few limitations with the data in the table.
- The enrollment figures, as sourced at the bottom of the table, do not come directly from KSDE. KSDE no longer reports the number of students statewide in each grade on their website. However, they do know that number because it is reported to the feds, the source of the data.
- As a reminder, students in grades 3-8 and 10 take the test annually.
- The table also assumes 100% of the students take the test.
- According to those limitations, about a quarter million students take the test each year.
- KSDE knows exactly how many students take the test, but those numbers are never published.
Given that absence of transparency, here are the best calculation of the number of students who fall into Level 1.
Using this approximate data, there were roughly 2,500 fewer students who scored in ELA Level 1 in 2023 than 2022. However, that masks the big picture. In 2015, the first state assessment results reported in the post-No Child Left Behind era, about 54,000 students tested in ELA Level 1. That number increased every year (but one) until 2023. The number increased to practically 85,000 by 2022. And that decrease in academic achievement was not a function of forced school closings in 2020. Scores were getting worse before school closures. Even in the fifth year of the test (2019) and pre-pandemic, the number in ELA Level 1 increased to about 76,000.
Only someone as entrenched as Commissioner Watson would look at that improvement from the last two years as success compared to the overall trend of the last seven. Seven tests removed from the inauguration of the current state assessment and tens of thousands more students are testing in Level 1 than nearly a decade ago. That’s good news?
Now, it appears, the state board is ‘doing something’ to combat these abysmal reading results. At the state level, but not necessarily at the district (teaching students) level, the board is putting all their eggs in the science of reading basket. That’s not a bad thing, but as a former teacher who was exposed to several “silver bullets” over my teaching career, simply adopting a different, albeit better, program is not going to eliminate the number of students failing academically. Where was attention regarding literacy in 2015? 2016? 2017?…As stated, they can’t even legitimately blame the pandemic. The scores were getting worse before Governor Kelly forced the schools to close.
Watson wants it both ways, ‘Hey, state assessments don’t really mean anything, but boy-howdy, we’ve got reason to celebrate because the numbers are slightly not as awful as last year!’ could summarize how he has treated the 2023 state assessment results.
When over 80,000 of Kansas students spread across approximately 1,500 schools in the state score in the bottom category – clearly a failing one – can anything be a celebration?
Here’s the set-up for the “October surprise.” He reminded the board that, indeed, about one third of the students are in Level 1 and that those kids don’t do as well as the others in terms of graduation, post-secondary success, etc. However, that number did come down in 2023, although practically infinitesimal. He then praises the board for adopting policy that will, in theory, make literacy (ELA) improvement a trend. Here are more of Watson’s words: “We hope to see that again. That’s not a trend…We’ll see next month.” Well….he already knows the scores, so do you think it possible that he’d say that to the board if he has seen that they went down in 2024?. As President Biden would say, “C’mon man!”
Given that when the scores are reported as having gone up (Level 1 percentages down) at the October board meeting, Watson is going to give credit to the board for having done “something to move that needle.”
I’m predicting that this year Watson will call for a parade down Jackson Street.
