Multiple factors drive public school enrollment declines in Kansas and across the nation, but the data make one thing clear: many of the declines are self-inflicted.
Lower birth rates and population shifts certainly have an impact, but many of the largest enrollment declines are occurring in counties where population is growing, while a fair number of districts in counties with declining populations are gaining enrollment.
Census population estimates show gains in Johnson, Sedgwick, Wyandotte, Douglas, and Leavenworth counties between 2020 and 2025, and Shawnee County is relatively unchanged. So why are most districts in those counties losing enrollment?
Most counties – 82 of the state’s 105 – lost population during that period, so why are some districts in those counties experiencing enrollment increases?
The table below shows how enrollment shifted dramatically since the 2020 COVID pandemic. Districts with 3,000 or more students collectively gained 4% between 2016 and 2020 but have since declined by 6%. Districts with enrollment below 3,000 also went from a gain to a loss, but the shift was smaller (+2% to -3%).
The shift is pretty stark in the large urban districts.
- Wichita: flat to a 10% decline
- Olathe: a 6% gain to a 7% decline
- Shawnee Mission: a 2% gain to a 5% decline
- Blue Valley: 4% gain to a 4% decline
- Kansas City: 8% gain to a 9% decline
- Lawrence: 1% gain to a 15% decline
Data for each district is available at KansasOpenGov.org.
Enrollment fell because many parents didn’t like what they saw during COVID
The exodus from large urban districts began in 2021, after many parents observed their children working remotely during COVID shutdowns.
Some parents realized their children’s academic capabilities were much lower than their report cards showed. Others were appalled to see critical race theory and DEI (diversity, equity, inclusion) indoctrination.
Despite parental pushback and enrollment declines, some districts persisted with their DEI efforts. A video confirmed that USD 500 Kansas City took its gender transitioning practice underground. The U.S. Department of Education found that district, along with Olathe, Shawnee Mission, and Topeka, in violation of federal law; Topeka settled, but the other three are spending taxpayer money on attorneys to fight the USDE findings. They are spending money to fight that (rather than stipulating they won’t do it again) while closing schools and eliminating benefits for paraprofessionals.
Enrollment declines will likely continue in districts that keep prioritizing political viewpoints over improving student outcomes, but other parts of the state have encouraging news.
Encouraging news in some smaller districts
Our Kansas School Board Resource Center recently held its annual conference on improving student outcomes, with more than 150 teachers, administrators, and school board members from 17 school districts attending.
Those districts share several things: they are laser-focused on improving student outcomes, engage with parents, don’t push political viewpoints, and, perhaps most importantly, have the courage to acknowledge that student outcome goals won’t be achieved unless the adults in the system are willing to change.
The big districts could learn a few things from these courageous innovators.
